By Davis Buyondo
Kampala-Uganda
According to the March-May 2023 Seasonal Rainfall Outlook released by the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), weather-associated diseases are expected in most parts of the country.
The authority has urged the concerned departments and the public to get ready to deal with the diseases such as asthmatic, malaria, waterborne diseases such as bilharzias, diarrheal diseases (cholera, dysentery) and Rift Valley Fever during the season.
Mainly, Uganda has two significant rainy seasons; the first, known as MAM, lasts from March through April to May; and the second that lasts from September through October, November, and December. However, places in Northern Uganda usually experience the third rainfall season during the months of June, July, and August (JJA).
As such, for prevention and treatment, the general population is urged to monitor on and reposition medicine stocks, provide long-lasting insecticide-treated mosquito nets on a regular basis, and improve disease surveillance in flood-prone areas.
According to David W. Elweru, the AG. Executive Director-UNMA, the public is also advised to improve good sanitation and health practices, integrate health hygiene into communities and encourage routine water treatment at all levels to prevent the worst.
“UNMA will continue to monitor the evolution of relevant weather systems and issue appropriate rainfall alerts, updates and advisories to the users regularly,” says Elweru.
The authority further states that the predicted impact of the rains requires prompt action and appropriate information on the weather and climate changes for the public to understand.
The prediction should be utilised to organise all rain-fed economic operations in order to enhance the economic well-being and standard of living for all of our communities in their respective regions, according to the authority.
IGAD ICPAC
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) through its Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (CPAC) has released a new Seasonal Forecasts Summary for Decision Makers and Advisories for March-May 2023.
The rainy season is significant, especially in the region’s equatorial regions where it accounts for up to 60% of all yearly precipitation. For the drought-affected areas, the drier-than-normal conditions that prevailed from the October to December 2020 season are anticipated to last through the March to May 2023 season.
If accurate, this would mark the sixth unsuccessful season over southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and northern parts of Kenya.
It is anticipated that some areas, particularly those near the borders of South Sudan and Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and a few locations in Tanzania, could get rainfall that is above average. The forecast urges member states to intensify preparations for potential floods and droughts in their respective regions.
Generally, drier than normal rainfall conditions are expected over eastern (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia eastern Kenya) and western (western South Sudan, Uganda, and Rwanda) parts of the region. Wetter than average conditions are expected, over cross-border areas of South Sudan and Ethiopia, north-western Kenya, and a few places in Tanzania.
The centre further shows how Uganda will register cases of malaria, malnutrition, poor crop prospects, water shortages, and cattle rustling (in Karamoja). The document shows how Karamoja’s food security situation and nutrition are predicted to worsen, while crop production and livestock are likely to decline.
According to ICPAC, the publication is specially designed for planning purposes since it is directly linked to uncertainties. Still, the advisories can be used for disaster risk management, addressing agriculture and food security, livestock, water and energy and health concerns.
The centre suggests that Uganda should encourage water storage to lessen water shortages, stockpile animal supplies, collaborate with the ministry of finance for resources, and create a national drought contingency plan.
Yet, in the agricultural sector, the poor crop prospects brought on by predicted moisture stress may lead to lower average production, crop failures and higher food costs in some regions of the country.
The centre suggests that in addition to educating and assisting farmers in using soil and water conservation practices including irrigation, mulching, terracing, etc., that early warning information be communicated to all stakeholders in a timely manner.
It also implores the Ugandan government, through the ministry of agriculture, to step up agricultural extension programmes, veterinary services, and farmer education on cutting-edge agronomic techniques, such as early maturing and drought-tolerant seed varieties, early prepositioning of seeds and other agro-inputs near agricultural communities.
The centre says that the districts of Kotido, Moroto, and Nabilatuk are very susceptible to cholera outbreaks because of a lack of water and poor sanitation and hygiene conditions.
To protect the most vulnerable communities, the centre encourages Uganda to speed up the widespread mosquito net campaign, improve malaria surveillance nationwide, and encourage water trucking and food distribution in addition to humanitarian assistance for the highly food-insecure population.
The projection also mentions the possibility of water shortages as a result of tiny valley tanks or dams receiving less water and electricity. Due to below-average inflows, downstream hydropower facilities may not provide the desired amount of power, and drying docking areas may impact water transportation (ferries).
“Uganda must effectively coordinate the operation of hydroelectric projects that are connected in cascade, promote water conservation and storage, rainwater collecting, and support the use of efficient irrigation systems to conserve water,” the centre states.
Increased cattle rustling
The increased banditry will be unavoidable due to an increase in vector-borne animal diseases in a few areas that will receive rain. The deteriorated pasture, water inadequacy/depletion, and high evaporation will be evident. Nonetheless, the circumstance will cause livestock to roam in search of grass and water, which could result in attacks and livestock theft.
Increased disease outbreak such as Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), and Anthrax around water points and grazing areas is expected due to overgrazing.
Decline In Livestock Productivity
Products such as milk, meat, and blood are projected to reduce due to animal diseases and movement in search for water and pasture in addition to the decline of livestock prices, especially for those in poor health conditions.
According to the centre, Uganda should improve disease surveillance, treatment, and immunization in addition to assisting with the bulking, distribution, and accessibility of fodder by impacted populations.
The country is further advised to promote the growth of hydroponic pastures specifically for dairy cows and peace dialogues involving pastoralists, farmers, and those who are on the move in addition to promoting the conservation of crop residues for use as animal feed and supporting the conservation of water-construction, rehabilitation, and desilting.
END
English 